First, let me say thanks for this opportunity to guest write for my esteemed colleague formerly of Clayton County. As a fellow alumni of Jonesboro High School (shout out HD83), I can only say things have gone downhill.
Breaking it DOWN!
So, it's my privilege to break down the 2013 schedule, one of my favorite parts of the season. Evaluating every team that we'll play is fun, but before that, let's look at some interesting facts about the schedule.
1. The Falcons play 5 nationally televised games this year. The most I can ever remember and though I couldn't confirm, I'm willing to bet the most in franchise history. They will play two Monday Night Football (MNF) games against the Jets on Oct 7th and in San Francisco on Dec 23rd. They also scored two Sunday Night Football (SNF) games against the Patriots on Sep 4th and at the Packers on Dec 14th. Finally, they have one Thursday Night Football (TNF) game when they host the Saints on Nov 21st.
2. The Falcons will spend 4 straight weeks at home from week 4 to week 7, though week 6 is a Bye.
3. They only play backtoback road games twice this year: at the Cardinals and at the Panthers in weeks 8 and 9; then at the Bills and at the Packers in weeks 13 and 14. This is a much better travel schedule than last year when the Falcons had zero backtoback games at home or on the road.
4. They have one short week with the TNF game against the Saints following a Sunday game in Tampa Bay. So that's a tough match coming off will likely be a tough game in Tampa, but at least we are at home for the short week.
5. Other than the BYE week which follows the first MNF game, the other MNF game (in San Francisco) is followed at home against the Panthers. This is a tough game against the NFC Champions on the west coast, only to turn around and travel home for a short week to prep for a division rival.
6. Travel is not too bad with only the San Francisco and Cardinals games being out www.patriotsfootballproshop.com/70_logan_mankins_jersey_authentic_black_limited_cheap.html west, though Green Bay in midDecember could be a bit cold.
7. The Falcons will play a total of 10 games inside with the Dolphins, Panthers, Bucs, Bills, Packers, and 49ers being outdoors.
Possible Roads to the Playoffs
Next, let's examine how the games are arrayed in terms of trying to map a way to the playoffs. Though recent history has shown that you can make the playoffs with 9 or even 8 wins, most hold to the belief that 10 wins pretty much guarantees you a spot and 11 or 12 should lock up the division. Of the 16 games, the Falcons play 6 in their own division (2 each against the Saints, Panthers, and Bucs). If you win all 6, you can take the division to the bank. At a minimum, you better win 3 and more likely 4 to have decent playoff hopes.
The Falcons have a total of 12 conference games in the NFC. The 6 we just talked about plus 4 from the NFC West (Cards, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers). Now that may seem tough with the Hawks and 49ers, but remember our entire division has to play them as well. If you can win 3 of 4 here, to go with 4 of 6 from above, you have 7 of the 10 wins you need.
The NFC South also matches up with the AFC East this year. So we all get to play the Pats, Bills, Jets, and Dolphins. Win 3 of these 4 (specifically Bills, Jets, and Dolphins) and you now have your 10 wins. However, if the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins are easy for our Birds, then they are as well for the Saints, et. al.
So that brings you to the last two games to make up the 12 from the NFC. These are the only games that will differ on our rival's schedules. We get the Packers and Skins while the Saints drew the Cowboys and Bears. The Bucs got the Eagles and the Lions and the Panthers drew the Giants and the Vikings. In theory, since these games are based on where you finished the previous year, we drew the 2 hardest games, but teams change every year and match ups always play an important role.
Some Games More Important
The point I leave you with is this: winning 4 of 6 in the division is a must (we didn't last year going 33, but we won every other game). Follow that with 3 of 4 from the AFC East and NFC West and you have 10 wins. Then split the Packers and Skins and you make it to 11 and an easy playoff berth. 11 wins could also win the division but not home field advantage throughout.
Of special note, we often debate in the Cage about "this game is huge" vs. others who say, "It's just a game, they all count the same". Actually, they don't all count the same. So in terms of tiebreakers, all the games within the conference are more important than the AFC games. In other words, if I can go 124 let me win all NFC games at the cost of the AFC games.1. They beat Detroit in 2008 3421, beat Miami in 2009 197, then lost to Pittsburgh in 2010 915 (the day we saw the beginning of Turner's end), lost to Chicago in 2011 1230. Last year, they rebounded to beat Kansas City 4024. I think that last year was a better representation of where this team is going. It was the first real shift to a passfirst team. The first game of 2013 is against the hated Saints in their house. The story line will be all about the Saints so get ready for that.
Fellow JHS Alums: Coop HD (AJC)
All ESPN and the NFL Network will want to talk about is the return of Payton (who Jimbo73 seems to think I look like sigh) already has the pundits picking the Saints for a glorious comeback. Payton is a hell of a coach, especially when he's allowed to cheat and Drew Brees is an elite QB, but I saw the Falcons get better this offseason and the Saints continue to regress. Their defense was bad last year and likely could be worse this year. They added to their secondary, but ask Trufant how hard it is to cover JJ11. Add in the running game of Stephen Jackson and I see the Falcons (on a mission) beating the Saints handily. This will remind folks of the Denver or San Diego games from last year. Falcons 34 Saints 13 (10)
2. Sunday, Sep 15th vs. St. Louis 1:00 pm
The Rams were a mediocre team last year and not much will change this year. They did add Jake Long, Jared Cook, and traded up for Tavon Austin in an attempt to help Sam Bradford. We'll see how that pans out, but I'm not sure Sam will ever live up to his first round pick. Regardless, they did nothing to bolster their running game when Stephen Jackson came to the Falcons. So you can expect to see our D sitting on the passing game (which is what we try to do anyway). While the St, Louis D is better than the Saint's www.patriotsfootballproshop.com D, Atlanta showed last year against the toughest defenses that they can and will score (Seahawks and 49ers).
Perfect Piece to Offense? (AJC)
Unlike those two games, I can't see Bradford leading a comeback even with an improved line and some new targets. Finally, let's not forget what this game likely means for SJax39. Playing against his old team in his new nest will be tons of motivation and I expect he has an epic game likely NFC rushing award for the week. Therein lays my only fear. Smitty needs to stay with the pass and let SJax39 get his as an afterthought. Don't lean so heavy to the run that you give away the game or even let the Rams stick around. In the end, Matty Ice and JJ11 will blow the roof of the dome. Falcons 28 Rams 6 (20)
The Dolphins may be trying for the moniker of 2013 Dream Team. They brought in a ton of veterans like Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson, Dustin Keller, Logan Mankins Limited Jersey and even our Tyson Clabo on offense. On defense, they grabbed Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe. The Falcons also brought in Osi and SJax39, but those two compared to the 7 or 8 medium to big names the Dolphins signed is a pretty big difference. At the end of the day, most teams live or die with their QB, and I still can't put my faith in Ryan Tannehill.
